No NFL team has been as close to greatness without winning it all in the past four seasons than the San Francisco 49ers.
Coach Kyle Shanahan’s team lost Super Bowl LIV after the 2019 season and then fell in the NFC Championship Game in each of the past two years. Last year’s team may have been more balanced than its Super Bowl team, finishing first in fewest points and yards allowed in the NFL and sixth and fifth in points scored and yards gained.
That balance shows in how the 49ers fared on the over/under line last year at 9-8. That followed three seasons where the combined finish was 24-23-2, which includes the down 6-10 mark in 2020 when edge rusher Nick Bosa and quarterback Jimmy Garrapolo missed most of the season with injuries.
BetCalifornia.com took a look back at all NFL over/under results from the past 10 seasons, utilizing data from SportsOddsHistory.com, to see which current stadiums have hit the most unders. This data includes all regular-season games, post-season games and Super Bowls played at the given stadium. We instituted a five-year minimum in the research, excluding Allegiant Stadium and SoFi Stadium from the list.
Unfortunately, you can’t use this research for California sports betting. There is no legal wagering in the state, and it won’t be until 2024 before a referendum can go before voters.
Best NFL Stadiums for Under Bettors Since 2013
While there is no BetMGM Sportsbook California, nationally the operator has San Francisco as a 2.5-point favorite at Pittsburgh in the season opener Sept. 10. The 49ers play their home opener Sept. 21 against the N.Y. Giants.
Levi’s Stadium Makes Top 10 in NFL
The BetCalifornia.com data shows the 49ers’ home, Levi’s Stadium, is ninth in the NFL for most unders of any other NFL stadium by percentage at 55.42% with an overall record of 46-37 in the past 10 years.
However, the 49ers’ recent history shows it has been harder to choose whether to bet the over or under than that data might suggest. The reason it shows a bit more unders at 55.42% has a lot to do with how long it took San Francisco to overcome moving on from coach Jim Harbaugh.
Harbaugh, who was 44-19-1 as coach with a Super Bowl appearance and two other trips to the NFC Championship Game, wasn’t retained and has been at the University of Michigan ever since. The 49ers struggled through a 5-11 season with Jim Tomsula and a 2-14 season with Chip Kelly before hiring Shanahan. He was 10-22 in his first two seasons before breaking through to the Super Bowl after his third year.
The 49ers will remain a strong defensive unit with Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and defensive back Talanoa Hufanga all coming off first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl seasons.
That should continue to help San Francisco when it comes to betting the under, especially as the team figures out if quarterback Brock Purdy has recovered from arm surgery or if Trey Lance has what it takes to be a front-line NFL starting quarterback.