Gavin Newsom has said he's not running in the 2024 US presidential election, but oddsmakers have placed him in the Top 5 of most likely candidates for several months. Newsom, the current Governor of California, would be well-positioned to target the presidency, with President Joe Biden's poll ratings in free-fall and Vice President Kamala Harris unlikely to run. Perhaps the election odds point to something we don't yet know?
While there are no California betting sites yet to place any wagers, we will keep track of the latest odds here.
Latest Gavin Newsom Odds to be President: April 2024
The latest Gavin Newsom 2024 odds to be President are +2500 according to oddsmakers, or about a 3.9% chance for him to win the Presidential Election based on implied probability. Below you can find the latest odds for the five presidential candidates with the shortest odds.
Is Gavin Newsom Running for President in 2024?
As of April 2024 Gavin Newsom has not expressed a desire to run in the US presidential election. Newsom is perhaps not as confident as some bettors would expect when it comes to elections. He survived a 2021 recall despite losing 60% of the vote, and in fall 2022 – before the midterms – he insisted he wouldn't challenge Biden for the presidency.
This remains the case. In April 2023 he endorsed president Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination. However, one big reason California sports betting apps and sites still give Newsom a 3.9% chance of becoming the next United States president is because it is unknown if Biden, who will be 81 during the next election, will be ready to contest it.
Who Gavin Newsom Would Likely Be Running Against
If Newsom is selected as the Democrats' pick for the 2024 US presidential election then he would face a monumental battle to make it to the White House. Not only would he be up against the GOP machine, but convincing voters he is the man for the job would be difficult after his recall vote in 2021.
Donald Trump – Priced at -111 in the election odds, Trump looks in the perfect place to return to the Oval Office. So long as he can keep the DOJ and various lawsuits at bay, the ex-president looks to be the favorite for the election by this time next year. What gives Newsom a slight boost here is a poll suggesting he beats Trump 40% to 39%.
Trump odds:
- -5000 to win GOP nomination (98% probability)
- -111 to be the next US president (52.6%)
Nikki Haley – The other Republican candidate Newsom could come up against were he to run for president is former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. In recent weeks, Haley has shot up odds boards. Although Haley is a distant second to former President Trump in current betting odds, she has surpassed Gov. Ron DeSantis who had been viewed as the most likely Republican candidate to push Trump for over a year.
Haley odds:
- +1400 to win GOP nomination (6.7% probability)
- +1600 to be next US president (5.9%)
Who Would Gavin Newsom's Vice President Running Mate Be?
Newsom's vice presidential nominee would be a little more obscure than the presidential candidates. It's unlikely Harris would accept the job under a new boss, while it's hard to see how Robert Kennedy Jr. would get on Newsom's ticket. Other options are:
- Andrew Cuomo – former New York Governor
- John Ossoff – Senator for Georgia
- Ayanna Pressley – U.S. Representative for Massachusetts
- Pete Buttigieg – US Secretary for Transportation
It's worth noting here that sportsbooks really don't have much to go on with regards to who will be the VP in 2024. Harris is expected to support Biden once again, but if Biden can't run for president then the race blows wide open.
Can Newsom Win Presidency in 2024?
It is certainly possible that Newsom is elected president in November 2024. However, there are a lot of barriers in his way. The first is Biden. Newsom is endorsing president Biden and won't run against him in the primaries. But if Biden suffers a health scare – and, at 80, who's to say he won't? – then Newsom could look to muscle in on the vacancy created.
He would then need to win the 2024 Democratic primaries, which would be a free-for-all if Biden isn't there. Newsom polls well against Trump and DeSantis but it's hard to tell how he would fare versus Harris, Kennedy Jr. and others.
Win the Dems' pick and then the real work begins. Could Newsom beat Trump? That's no easy challenge. Beating Florida Gov DeSantis might be more straightforward, but the Republican nomination is almost certainly going to the former president.
Gavin Newsom 2024 Democratic Nominee Odds
The battle for the top pick on the Democratic side isn't really a contest right now. Biden will win it if he is fit enough. However, bookmakers can't be too sure that he will be there, and that's why they're offering political odds on various other candidates. This includes Newsom, who has the third-shortest odds behind Biden and Michelle Obama to win the Democrat primaries.
Could Gavin Newsom Be the 2024 Presidential Democratic Nominee?
Were Newsom to run for president then he would likely do so because Biden had ceded power. In this instance, the 55-year-old would come up against a range of Democrats seeking the party nomination. Here are some he would likely be up against:
Michelle Obama – The former First Lady has shot up odds boards and currently has the second-shortest odds to become the Democratic Presidential nominee, although she is well behind Biden at this time.
M. Obama Odds:
- +400 to win Dems nomination (20% Chance)
- +800 to be the next president (11.1% Chance)
Kamala Harris – If Biden steps down then VP Harris would immediately be in the spotlight. A former California senator, Harris has the pedigree to run the country but not the support. Her approval ratings are lower than Biden's.
Harris Odds:
- +2800 to win Dems nomination (3.5% Chance)
- +5000 to be the next president (2.0% Chance)
Beyond Harris and Michelle Obama, Dean Phillips and Elizabeth Warren are technically next in line in terms of betting odds, but with each holding less than a 2.5% chance, neither are really being considered at this point.
Could Gavin Newsom Be the Vice President in 2024?
There is a strong possibility that Newsom could become the Vice President in 2024, alongside President Biden. Newsom wouldn't need the popular vote for this role and there is speculation over whether Harris will be kept as part of Biden's ticket.
Key Developments Gavin Newsom Odds to Be President
The election betting odds on Newsom for 2024 have swung wildly over the past few years. When the market opened after the last election he had only been in the California Gov. job a year. And yet within a few years he's come one of the biggest names on the list of viable Biden replacements.
- 📆 November 30, 2023 - Newsome and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will have a debate televised on Fox News in what the network is calling "The Great Red vs. Blue State Debate". The debate is set to begin at 6 p.m. PT.
- 📆 May 2023 – Ex-California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger says Newsom running for president is a "no brainer". This gives his odds a further boost. However, it's more likely that Newsom will run for president in 2028 when Biden, and perhaps Trump, are out of the picture for the White House.
- 📆 March 2023 – Newsom launches a new campaign targeting GOP figures in key states. The $10m initiative heightens his profile further.
- 📆 September 2022 – Endorsing Biden helps Newsom's odds even though he's backing a different guy for office. The odds fall to +1400 on Newsom being the next United States president. His passing of firearms laws in California and establishment of the Office of Health Care Affordability are further boosts to his profile among Democrats.
- 📆 Summer 2022 – After 18 months of high odds Newsom's price begins to shorten. This is partially due to his high-profile campaign for re-election in the midterms, which casts him back into the national spotlight.
- 📆 November 2020 – The election betting market opens after Biden's victory over Donald Trump. Newsom's election betting odds are +6600. Those expand to +10000 after he narrowly avoids losing a recall.
What Are Gavin Newsom's Chances To Be President in 2024 or 2028?
Betting site bet365 has priced Newsom at +2500 in the election betting odds, which means he has a 3.9% chance of winning in 2024. That's a long shot but highlights how confident odds makers are that either Joe Biden or former president Donald Trump will win.
The 2028 election odds are yet to be released, but Newsom would almost certainly be in the running. He could even face Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
What the Sportsbooks Have Newsom Presidential Odds At
bet365 is one of the world's most reputable sportsbooks and carries licenses in many American states, but not in California. What's more, it is illegal to bet on politics in the U.S. However, bet365's UK sportsbook does carry Newsom presidential election odds right now. Newsom is priced at +900 in that sportsbook.
All odds obtained in this article are from bet365's UK site.
Is Betting on Politics Legal in California?
Betting on politics is not legal in California, nor can bettors place wagers on politics at tribal casinos or racetracks. Californians rejected Props 26 and 27 in the fall of 2022 that would have made it possible to bet on sports in CA, but still not politics.
And those propositions were expected to have opened the door for expanded gambling in the state, including California online casinos.
How to Read the Newsom Presidential Odds
Election betting odds, whether they're focused on Newsom, incumbent Joe Biden, or even an outlier like Hillary Clinton, can be read the same every time. Here's how they work:
Say you want to bet on Newsom to be the next president. You check the presidential election odds board and see him at +900. These odds indicate you'd win $900 if you wagered $100 on the outcome, and it won.
Now, the other presidential election odds that might occur is if Newsom falls into the negative numbers. This suggests he is the "odds on favorite" and could happen if, say, he won the Democratic primaries and faced Republican Nikki Haley. Say Newsom was -200 to win. Here, a bettor would need to wager $200 just to win $100 back in profit.
When Newsom's odds fall then he's more likely to win. When they rise, he's less likely. The figure in the odds indicates your potential winnings – and risk.
2024 Presidential Election Polls: Where Does Newsom Stand?
The presidential election polls for 2024 are a great indicator, along with the election odds, on how likely anyone is to be inaugurated come Jan. 2025. Newsom is one of the peripheral figures who could win the election but probably won't.
Newsom hasn't announced he is running, and so is not in the polling data for the Democratic primaries. He is also not in the US presidential polls, which are currently split between Biden and Trump. Even the likes of Kamala Harris and Ron DeSantis are seeing their support fade away here.
In February 2023 Newsom's approval rating hit its highest peak in two years, at 58%. However, figuring out how to handle the state's $22bn budget deficit could prove his undoing before long. If Newsom is thinking of running for president then he needs to get out of the CA Governor post with his reputation in tact. According to the San Francisco Standard there aren't enough people backing Newsom for a presidential run just yet. That could change, but probably not in time for 2024.
Gavin Newsom Presidential Odds FAQs
Gavin Newsom is not running for president in 2024 but is instead backing Biden in the Democratic primaries. However, should Biden choose to step away from the presidency then Newsom could be in line to replace him as the Democratic nominee.
According to bet365's UK sportsbook, Gavin Newsome is listed at +2500 to win the 2024 US Presidential election. He has the fifth-shortest odds to be the next president, behind Donald Trump (-111), Joe Biden (+175), Michelle Obama (+800), and Nikki Haley (+1600).
Although this could change in the future, you cannot yet place wagers on US elections if you live in the United States. Presidential election odds are available in the UK and place President Biden and Donald Trump as the favorites for the White House in 2024.
Gavin Newsom can run in the 2024 presidential elections but it's unlikely that he will. The California Governor has already endorsed President Biden as the Democratic nominee to run for the White House in 2024.
According to the bet365 UK sportsbook, former President Donald Trump is the current betting favorite to win the 2024 US Presidential election. At odds of -111, this comes out to a 52.6% chance once converted to an implied probability.
Author
Joe Short is a political betting expert for BetCalifornia.com. Joe covers betting on US politics including a focus on presidential election odds. When Joe isn't analyzing and predicting the latest odds for major political races, he is a freelance journalist covering politics, football, tennis and darts, among other things.
