Even though California has not legalized sports betting, fans are still finding ways to wager on the Super Bowl. Platforms like Kalshi operate under federal rules, letting users place bets on game outcomes despite the state ban on California sports betting.
How Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets differ from traditional sportsbooks. Users buy and sell yes-or-no contracts with each other, rather than betting against a “house.” Trading activity sets the odds and potential payouts. These markets have been used for both sports and political events.
Representative Salud Carbajal (D-Santa Barbara) summarized the concern: “People can place bets on everything from who will win the Super Bowl to which party will control Congress. Many of these platforms operate without standard oversight or safeguards.”
Betting Volume and Activity
According to the LA times, prediction markets have seen significant wagering on the Super Bowl.
Last year, Kalshi reported $27 million in total volume on the Eagles vs. Chiefs matchup. This year, Super Bowl LX contracts have surpassed $150 million, with users placing a 68% probability on the Seattle Seahawks defeating the New England Patriots.
Other sports betting apps like FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics have also launched Super Bowl prediction markets in states without legal sports betting.
However, the NFL has banned advertising for these platforms during the broadcast and treats them like traditional sports betting under league rules.
Legal Challenges
California remains among the 11 states that have not approved state-regulated sports betting following the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2018 ruling.
In response, several states and tribal entities have gone to court, contending that prediction markets operate outside existing gambling laws and conflict with state regulations and tribal gaming agreements.
Although California Attorney General Rob Bonta has not initiated standalone enforcement action, his office has supported legal challenges asserting that these platforms may violate state, federal, and tribal law. State officials have said they are closely tracking the ongoing cases, but have not offered further public detail.
Controversies and High-Profile Bets
Prediction markets have also gained notice for contracts tied to major non-sports events, including elections and other political outcomes. In some cases, traders have earned sizable returns by correctly anticipating surprise developments.
At the same time, these platforms continue to list markets tied to sports, such as individual player outcomes, final scores, and Super Bowl-related metrics like attendance.
Despite ongoing legal questions and pushback from the NFL, state officials, and tribal gaming groups, prediction markets remain active. For users in California and other states without legal sports betting, they represent a federally overseen, though highly contested, avenue for engaging with Super Bowl-related outcomes.
