The Grammys, an annual awards show recognizing achievements in music presented by the Recording Academy of the United States, airs Feb. 5. To celebrate, BetCalifornia.com is shining the spotlight on Californian nominees that are certain to be a hot topic of conversation on the big night.
There is no legal California sports betting, so we have created strictly hypothetical odds for eight of the most talked about artists from the Golden State and evaluated their chances of bringing home a trophy on Grammy night.
California sportsbooks aren’t there for bets, but that won’t stop us from speculating wildly about the possible outcomes.
Last month we did hypothetical odds for the just-completed Golden Globes.
Odds of California Artists to Win a Grammy
Kenrick Lamar: Several Awards Nominations, 1/15
Kendrick Lamar is nominated for Album of the Year, Song of the Year, Best Rap Performance, Best Melodic Rap Performance, Best Rap Song, Best Rap Album and Best Music Video.
It is very likely he will score here, so we have him at -1500 odds, which means a 93.72% implied probability.
Just 35, the Compton rapper and producer has been nominated for a staggering 47 Grammy awards. He has won 14.
King Kendrick’s long-awaited follow up to 2017’s DAMN finally arrived last year. The critically acclaimed Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers earned Lamar eight Grammy nominations, including nods in each of the big three categories: Record of the Year, Song of the Year and Album of the Year.
Lamar will face stiff competition against Adele and Beyoncé in the big categories, but it’s a safe bet that he’ll nab at least one of the Rap categories he’s nominated in - and likely more than one.
Best Rap Album, an award he’s won twice previously, is Kendrick’s to lose.
Steve Lacy: Several Awards Nominations, 1/4
Steve Lacy is nominated for Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance and Best Progressive R&B Album.
We set his odds at -400, or an 80% implied probability.
Also born in Compton, Lacy has been kicking around the California rap scene for several years now— growing his reputation as a producer while working alongside a diverse range of artists, including Frank Ocean and Vampire Weekend.
Lacy broke out in a big way in 2022 when his hit “Bad Habit” was used in more than 400,000 TikTok videos.
While he has a long shot at Song of the Year for “Bad Habit,” Lacy’s a huge favorite to win Best Progressive R&B Album this year. Gemini Rights is a showcase of Lacy’s unique musical expression and vocals
Amanda Gorman: Best Spoken Word Poetry Album, 1/4
This is the first year the Best Spoken Word Poetry Album will be handed out at the Grammys.
Given that it’s a new category, it’s fitting that Amanda Gorman’s nominated for the inaugural award. After all, Gorman drew the ears of the nation when she read her rousing poem, “The Hill We Climb,” at President Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021.
That poem is included in her collection, Call Us What We Carry, the recording of which earned her this Grammy nom.
Although it is difficult to predict a winner in a brand-new category, Gorman is likely to be one of the only names voters recognize in this category. We’re giving her nearly an 80% chance of taking home her first Grammy.
Doja Cat: Several Awards Nominations, 2/1
Doja Cat has been nominated for Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Pop Duo Performance, Best Rap Performance and Best Music Video. With hypothetical odds of +200, that is an implied probability of 33,3%.
Since bursting her way onto the Grammy scene in 2021, Doja Cat has scored 13 nominations and one win. That was for last year’s Best Pop Duo/Group Performance for her song with SZA, “Kiss Me More.”
This year, she has scored five nominations. Her song “Woman” was recognized for Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance and Best Music Video. “I Like You (A Happier Song),” a duet with Post Malone, was nominated for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance. And “Vegas,” which appears in the hit biopic Elvis, scored her a Best Rap Performance nom.
While she isn’t a front-runner in any category, five nominations are a lot, so she probably won’t go home empty-handed.
Red Hot Chili Peppers: Best Rock Song, 3/1
This category feels like a two-way race between “Broken Horses” by Brandi Carlile -whose album, “In These Silent Days,” earned her seven total nominations this year - and Ozzy Osbourne’s dueling guitar duet with the recently departed rocker Jeff Beck, “Patient Number 9.”
Still, it’s not a particularly stacked category this year. The odds are set at +300 (and 25% implied probability) because it’s certainly possible the Chili Peppers score a legacy win here for their single “Black Summer.”
Billie Eilish: Best Music Film, Best Song Written for a Visual Media, 4/1
In 2020, Billie Eilish stormed the Grammys, sweeping the big three categories and also took home Best New Artist and Best Pop Vocal Album. Since then, she’s added two more trophies to her collection and returns in 2023 with two nominations.
Despite her previous Grammys success, we’ve given Eilish 20% implied probability to take him a trophy this year.
Best Music Film is likely going to Adele One Night Only, which brought in 10 million live viewers back in November 2021.
Eilish is also nominated for Best Song Written for a Visual Media for her role in crafting fictitious boy-band 4Town’s “Nobody Like U” for the Pixar coming-of-age film Turning Red.
While “Nobody Like U” pays delightful homage to the bubble-gum pop music of the early-2000s, this award is going to either “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from Encanto or Lady Gaga’s Top Gun: Maverick ballad “Hold My Hand.”
Beck: Best Rock Performance, 10/1
Eight-time Grammy winner Beck is nominated for the 23rd time with his cover of Neil Young’s “Old Man.” Beck’s faithful and sincere recording of the all-time classic is worth seeking out, but his chances of winning in this category are almost nil. We put him at +1000, or 9% implied probability.
Brandi Carlile and Ozzy Osbourne are both major threats here as well. Dad rock legends The Black Keys are also nominated here for their radio-friendly rock tune “Wild Child.” To win here, Beck would have to pull off another major Grammy upset - in 2015 he shocked everyone when Morning Phase beat out Beyoncé for Album of the Year.
H.E.R: Best Dance/Electronic Recording, 16/1
Enigmatic singer/songwriter H.E.R. is nominated this year for her appearance on Haitian-Canadian producer KAYTRANADA’s soulful electronic track “Intimidated.” While also nominated for her producer role on Mary J. Blige’s Good Morning Gorgeous album, “Intimidated” is her only nomination this year as a performing artist.
The long +1600 odds are a nod of respect to Beyoncé, who is the heavy favorite here. Bey’s nomination for “Break My Soul” is just one of nine.
While this might not be H.E.R.’s year, with five wins and 25 nominations to her name, it’s safe to say she will be back to compete another year.
If you enjoyed this comprehensive look at the Grammys, keep tuned to BetCalifornia.com, where you also will find California sportsbook promo codes.
List of Californian Grammy Nominees
Steve Lacy: Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Progressive R&B Album
Doja Cat: Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Pop Duo Performance, Best Rap Performance, Best Music Video
Kendrick Lamar: Album of the Year, Song of the Year, Best Rap Performance, Best Melodic Rap Performance, Best Rap Song, Best Rap Album, Best Music Video
Billie Eilish: Best Music Film, Best Song Written for Visual Media
Bonobo: Best Dance/Electronic Recording, Best Dance/Electronic Album
Molly Tuttle: Best New Artist, Best Bluegrass Album
Miguel: Best Dance/Electronic Recording
Grant Geissman: Best Contemporary Instrumental Album
H.E.R.: Best Dance/Electronic recording
Megadeth: Best Metal Performance
Red Hot Chili Peppers: Best Rock Song
Beck: Best Rock Performance
Terrace Martin: Best Progressive R&B Album
Moonchild: Best Progressive R&B Album
Will Ackerman: Best New Age, Ambient, or Chant Album
White Sun: Best New Age, Ambient, or Chant Album
Ambrose Akinmusire: Best Improvisational Jazz Solo
Remy Le Boeuf: Best Large Jazz Ensemble Album
Erica Campbell: Best Gospel Performance/Song
Phil Wickham: Best Contemporary Gospel Performance/Song
Chiquis Rivera: Best Regional Mexican Music Album
Los Tigres del Norte: Best Regional Mexican Music Album
La Santa Cecilia: Best Tropical Latin Album
Madison Cunningham: Best American Roots Performance, Best Folk Album
Bonnie Raiit: Best Americana Performance, Best American Roots Song, Best Americana Album
Keb' Mo': Best Americana Album
Remy LeBoeuf: Best Large Jazz Ensemble Album
Erica Campbell: Best Gospel Performance/Song
Ry Gooder: Best Traditional Blues Album
Ben Harper: Best Contemporary Blues Album
Lucky Diaz & the Family Jam Band: Best Children's Album
Christopher Tin: Best Score Soundtrack for Video Games and Other Interactive Media
Amanda Gorman: Best Spoken Word Poetry Album