Hypothetical Odds on Golden Globe Nominees from California

Hypothetical Odds on Golden Globe Nominees from California
Fact Checked by Thomas Leary

The 80th annual Golden Globe Awards are on Jan. 10, and once again the ceremony will be held in Los Angeles.

The Globes, which celebrate the year’s biggest achievements in film and television, are back on the airwaves after going untelevised in 2022 following an industry boycott that forced NBC to pull the broadcast. 

Although the event’s organizing body, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, has agreed to address long-standing diversity and inclusion concerns within its membership, it still remains to be seen which celebs will be there in person.

But it’s a safe bet there will be at least a few members of the home team in attendance. Thirteen actors and actresses from California are nominated for awards. Of course, that’s hardly surprising since California is the entertainment capital of the world. 

With four wins each, Californians Tom Hanks, Laura Dern, Robert Duvall and Helen Hunt are among the performers most awarded by the Golden Globes. 

But the winningest Californian in Golden Globes history is Dustin Hoffman, who’s taken home a Golden Globe five times.

But what chance do this year’s Golden State-Golden Globe nominees have to win? While California sports betting is still a way off, I’ve put together a set of hypothetical odds to help speculate on the potential outcomes.

So which Californian is most likely to nab a victory?

For more fun odds like this, be sure to check out Fliff Social California

Hypothetical Betting Odds for California Nominees

Nominee Odds Implied Probability
Zendaya (Best Actress – Drama – TV Series) 1-2 66%
Jamie Lee Curtis (Best Supporting Actress) 2-3 60%
Austin Butler (Best Actor – Drama) 3-2 40%
Jenna Ortega (Best Actress – Musical or Comedy – TV Series) 2-1 33%
Adam Scott (Best Actor – Drama – TV Series) 3-1 25%
Hannah Einbinder (Best Supporting Actress – TV Movie/Limited) 6-1 14.29%
Kevin Costner (Best Actor – Drama – TV Series) 6-1 14.29%
Niecy Nash-Betts (Best Supporting Actress – TV Movie/Limited) 10-1 9.1%
Jessica Chastain (Best Actress in a TV Series – TV Movie/Limited) 10-1 9.1%
Todd Field (Best Screenplay) 12-1 7.7%
Jeff Bridges (Best Actor – Drama – TV Series) 12-1 7.7%
Adam Driver (Best Actor – Musical or Comedy) 19-1 5%
Andrew Garfield (Best Actor in a TV Series – TV Movie/Limited) 25-1 3.6%

Top Five Most Likely Winners From California

1. Zendaya (Best Actress – Drama — TV Series) — 1-2 (66% implied)

Nominated for her performance as Rue in HBO’s teens-behaving-badly drama series Euphoria, Zendaya just won an Emmy for this role earlier this year. 

These odds suggest there’s 66% chance — or -150 in American odds — that she’s putting another statue on the mantle.

With all due respect to The Crown, it’s obvious that Euphoria is the buzziest show nominated in the Drama category. And Zendaya’s performance as Rue has been widely heralded among critics and fans alike. 

Somehow she’s turned Rue — a teenage misanthrope with a severe drug problem and a penchant for illegal, immoral, and dangerous behavior — into one of modern television’s most beloved characters.

2. Jamie Lee Curtis (Best Supporting Actress) — 2-3 (60% implied)

We’re putting the odds of Jamie Lee Curtis winning her third Golden Globe at 60%. Throughout Everything Everywhere All at Once, the full range of Curtis’ talent is on display as she juggles various iterations of her character across multiple dimensions.

Her biggest competition is likely Kerry Condon, nominated for The Banshees of Inisherin, but I don’t think voters will be able to resist Curtis’ hilarious performance as the curmudgeonly IRS inspector Deirdre Beaubeirdre.

3. Austin Butler (Best Actor – Drama) — 3-2 (40% implied odds)

Brendan Fraser is widely considered to be the favorite in this category following a transformative turn in The Whale

While Fraser’s prosthetic-laden comeback to the world of Hollywood is sure to be an exciting storyline to watch this Awards season, there’s a real chance Austin Butler plays spoiler at the Globes.

The Whale’s already beginning to face a backlash for being, well… quite pretentious. And so I’ve set Butler as a slight underdog, with a 40% implied win probability, in case voters decide to recognize his more popcorn-friendly performance in the musical biopic Elvis.

4. Jenna Ortega (Best Actress – Musical or Comedy — TV Series) — 2-1 (33% implied)

Jenna Ortega stars as Wednesday Addams in Netflix’s teen-friendly re-imagining of The Addams Family franchise, Wednesday — which has been rapidly building buzz since its late-November 2022 release.

Ortega has already had a big 2022. In addition to Wednesday, this year she’s emerged as a bona-fide scream queen with performances in the Ti West horror X and the latest Scream film.

Though it will be tough to beat out Quinta Brunson, star of the hit sitcom Abbott Elementary, Globe voters could use this award as a way to glom onto a young and up-and-coming talent.

5. Adam Scott (Best Actor – Drama — TV Series) — 3-1 (25% implied)

Fellow nominee Bob Odenkirk, fresh off the final season of Better Call Saul, is the clear favorite here, but Adam Scott has an outside chance of winning for his role as Mark S. on the intriguing sci-fi series Severance

The show, which is set in an alternative reality that feels a lot like the 1990s, follows a group of corporate employees who opt for a controversial medical procedure that “severs” their memory between their work life and their personal life.

I still think Odenkirk takes it, but Scott’s performance is notable as he alternates between a high-functioning company man with Lumon Industries and a depressed widower on his off-hours.

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Jeff Parker

Jeff Parker is an entertainment writer for BetCalifornia.com. A writer for film, television and the internet, Jeff is a life long movie buff, with a Masters Degree in Popular Culture. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia, where he works full time as documentary filmmaker and producer.

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