Can Juan Soto Join The 3,000 Hit Club One Day?

Can Juan Soto Join The 3,000 Hit Club One Day?
Fact Checked by Thomas Leary

A total of 33 Major League Baseball stars have reached the esteemed 3,000-hit plateau, with Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera becoming the latest member of the club this past season.  

The milestone is one that requires longevity and legendary amounts of hand-eye coordination, with the list chocked full of the greatest names in the game’s hallowed history, such as Ty Cobb, Hank Aaron, Pete Rose, Willie Mays, etc.  

A Major Leaguer would have to average 200 hits a year for 15 years to reach the 3,000-hit mark, which says a lot by itself — given the fact that the last member of the 200-hit club was Whit Merrifield of the Kansas City Royals in 2019.  

One up-and-coming MLB star that could one day etch his name into the history books when it comes to hits is San Diego Padres outfielder Juan Soto, though it would still be an upset across California sports betting.

Soto, who was traded to the Friars from the Washington Nationals this past season, currently has 612 hits at the ripe age of 24, meaning he needs ... only 2,388 more to reach the 3,000-hit mark.  

BetCalifornia.com utilized ZIPs Projection on FanGraphs.com and past trends of 3,000 hit players at each age to determine the possibility of Soto accomplishing the feat.

Odds of Joining The 3,000 Hit Club

Player Current Age Current # of Hits Percentage Chance Odds
Juan Soto 24 61219%+425
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 23 54714%+615
Bryce Harper 30 13792%+4900
Rafael Devers 26 7621%+9900


What Are Juan Soto’s Odds of Hitting 3,000?

To reach the 3,000-hit club, Soto will need to find a way to rack up more than 2,300 singles, doubles, triples, or home runs — which would be a tall task for any hitter.  

Assuming Soto plays through his age-35 season, he’d need to average 217.1 hits per season to reach 3,000 for his career.  

To date, the Dominican Republic native has never finished a season with more than 157 hits, a feat he accomplished during Washington’s 2021 season.  

According to Baseball-Reference.com, Soto has averaged 161 hits per every 162-game season he’s played in. The kicker? He never has played all 162 games in a season.

By that metric, he’d need to play for 14.74 years, or roughly through his age-38 season, to reach 3,000 hits for his career.  

The youngest player to ever reach the 3,000-hit mark was Ty Cobb, who did so in his 2,135th game at the age of 34 years, 243 days old.  

Cobb averaged a whopping 1.41 hits per game during those 2,135 contests to reach the 3,000 hit mark at such a juncture.  

By comparison, Soto has put together 612 hits across 617 MLB games, or 0.991 hits per game, during his five-year playing career.

Who Reaches 3,000 Hits Next?

When crunching the combination of Soto’s age (24) and number of hits (612), BetCalifornia.com determined that the Santo Domingo native has a 19%, or +425 chance, of reaching the 3,000-hit plateau.  

Soto’s odds are higher than any other MLB player that BetCalifornia.com surveyed, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (14%/+615), Bryce Harper (2%/+4900), and Rafael Devers (1%/+9900).  

For now, Soto and the San Diego Padres can shift their focus toward returning to the MLB Playoffs in 2023.

According to oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook California, the Padres have +1400 odds of winning their first World Series title in 2023, which ranks seventh in the 30-team MLB.  

Whether Soto can join the elite 3,000-hit club down the road is to be determined, with good fortune and health serving as the ultimate deciding factor.  

As of now, it appears the former National and current Padre is in good shape to have a hitter’s chance at doing just that at some point down the line.  

Stay close to this site for breakdowns like this as well as California Sportsbook promo codes once the state clears the path to legislation.

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Contributors

Christopher Boan
Reporter / Journalist

Christopher Boan is the lead writer at BetCalifornia.com, specializing in sports betting issues in the western United States. He's covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

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