Bounceback Season: How MLB Teams Perform After Last-Place Finishes

Bounceback Season: How MLB Teams Perform After Last-Place Finishes
Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

An offseason of discontent about the future home of the Oakland Athletics is far from completion. Owner John Fisher looks to move the team from the Bay Area, its home of 53 years, and transplant it to Las Vegas. In the meantime, the A’s have one of the worst rosters in recent MLB history and would not be a good proposition for anybody’s future bets if legal California sportsbooks were in operation.

As such, the A’s and their 30th-ranked payroll ($45,525,000 in 2024 according to Spotrac.com) aren’t expected to do much on the field this year. Oakland has the second-lowest World Series odds of any team on ESPN BET at +15000 and a preseason win total over/under of 57.5.

Such a result would represent a seven-win improvement over last year’s tire fire of a 50-112 (.302) campaign in the East Bay. That was the worst winning percentage for the franchise since the World War I era, during their days in in Philadelphia — between 1915 and 1919, the A’s had three years playing under .300 baseball including the worst. A .235 season (36-117 with one tie) in 1916.

Still, a new MLB season means a chance to start anew for each of the sport’s 30 franchises. So the A’s aim to flip the script in the new year, though recent history tells us that such a feat is unlikely in The Town this year.

BetCalifornia.com, which provides the best California sports betting promo codes in the eventuality of a legal market in the state, looked into last-place teams in the past decade. We sought out the worst regular-season team in the AL and NL each year since 2014 to see if any of those losing teams bounce back.

2014-2023 American League & National League Losers

Year League, Team Record, Rank Next year, Record, Rank Rank Movement
2023 AL, Oakland 50-112, #15 ‘24: TBD TBD
NL, Colorado 59-103, #15 ‘24: TBD TBD
2022 AL, Oakland 60-102, #15 ‘23: 50-112, #15 +0
NL, Washington 55-107, #15 ‘23: 71-91, #14 +1
2021 AL, Baltimore 52-110, #15 ‘22: 83-79, #7 +8
NL, Arizona 52-110, #15 ‘22: 74-88, #9 +6
2020 AL, Texas 22-38, #15 ‘21: 60-102, #14 +1
NL, Pittsburgh 19-41, #15 ‘21: 61-101, #14 +1
2019 AL, Detroit 47-114, #15 ‘20: 23-35, #14 +1
NL, Miami 57-105, #15 ‘20: 31-29, #7 +8
2018 AL, Baltimore 47-115, #15 ‘19: 54-108, #14 +1
NL, Miami 63-98, #15 ‘19: 57-105, #15 +0
2017 AL, Detroit 64-98, #15 ‘18: 64-98, #12 +3
NL, San Francisco 64-98, #15 ‘18: 73-89, #12 +3
2016 AL, Minnesota 59-103, #15 ‘17: 85-77, #5 +10
NL, San Diego 68-94, #15 ‘17: 71-91, #11 +4
2015 AL, Oakland 68-94, #15 ‘16: 69-93, #13 +2
NL, Philadelphia 63-99, #15 ‘16: 71-91, #11 +4
2014 AL, Texas 67-95, #15 ‘15: 88-74, #3 +12
NL, Arizona 64-98, #15 ‘15: 79-83, #8 +7

The National League averages a positive movement of 3.77 in rank for teams the year after they rank No. 15 in their league. An AL teams move up an average of 4.22 spots the following season. Based on this trend, the Oakland A’s should move up to No. 10 or 11 and the Colorado Rockies should move up to No. 11 or 12.

Can A’s Return To Relevance In 2024?

Since 2014, the largest jump after a team finished last in its league was a 12-spot jump by the Texas Rangers. They went from 67-95 in 2014 to 88-74 the next season. In the NL, the biggest improvement is eight spots by the Miami Marlins, who went from 57-105 in 2019 to 31-29 in the 2020 season that was shortened because of COVID-19 restrictions.

A recent AL success story that Oakland fans can look to is in Baltimore. The Orioles went from 52-110 in 2021 to 83-79 the following season, then kept improving last season, when they were 101-61 and won the AL East. That speaks to the value franchises can reap by investing heavily in their farm systems and scouting systems.

For Oakland, such a reversal of fortune seems unlikely, though stranger things have happened on the diamonds of Major League Baseball in recent years. Those looking for legal California sports betting apps also have to look to the future for hope.

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Author

Christopher Boan
Christopher Boan
Reporter / Journalist

Christopher Boan is the lead writer at BetCalifornia.com, specializing in sports betting issues in the western United States. He's covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

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