2022 MLB Home Run Derby Contestant Breakdown: Who Could Topple Pete Alonso’s Reign?

2022 MLB Home Run Derby Contestant Breakdown: Who Could Topple Pete Alonso’s Reign?
By Christopher Boan
Fact Checked by Michael Peters

Eight Major League Baseball stars will take the field at Dodger Stadium on Monday night, looking to send as many baseballs into the Southern California night as possible.

The field of the 2022 MLB Home Run Derby is highlighted by back-to-back champ Pete Alonso of the New York Mets. Also in the field are Atlanta outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr., St. Louis DH Albert Pujols, Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez, Seattle rookie OF Julio Rodriguez, Texas shortstop Corey Seager, Philadelphia DH Kyle Schwarber and Washington OF Juan Soto.

Alonso enters the 2022 derby as the odds-on favorite after lapping the field in 2019 and 2021 (there was no contest in 2020), joining Ken Griffey Jr. and Yoenis Céspedes as the only back-to-back winners in the event’s history.

With a win Monday night, Alonso would join Griffey as the only player with three Home Run Derby crowns.

BetCalifornia.com utilized the websites BaseballSavant.com, OnlyHomers.com and BaseballReference.com to give you the best chance at picking a HR Derby winner.

There is no legal California sports betting.

But two initiatives are on the ballot for November. One, backed by national online sports betting brands, officially qualified for the ballot in late June.

If Every Game Was at Dodger Stadium

Contestant 2022 HRs Expected HRs
⚾️ Pete Alonso 2426
⚾️ Ronald Acuña Jr.813
⚾️ Albert Pujols69
⚾️ Jose Ramirez1718
⚾️ Julio Rodriguez1515
⚾️ Kyle Schwarber2832
⚾️ Corey Seager2124
⚾️ Juan Soto1923
BetCalifornia.com utilized the websites BaseballSavant.com, OnlyHomers.com and BaseballReference.com to make the above estimates.

Alonso Favored to Win Another Home Run Derby

BetMGM Sportsbook, unsurprisingly enough, has Alonso as their odds-on Home Run Derby favorite, with the Mets slugger listed at +200.

That’s unsurprising given Alonso’s love for the derby and the success the 27-year-old has had at Dodger Stadium in the past.

According to data compiled by BetCalifornia.com, Alonso would have belted 26 home runs this season if all games were played inside Chavez Ravine.

That ranks second among all Home Run Derby entrants, behind Schwarber (32 home runs), and three ahead of the next closest competitor (Seager, 24 home runs).

Alonso also has the highest home run rate of any participant at Dodger Stadium — 13.2%. The next closest competitor, by home run rate at Dodger Stadium, is Soto at 10%.

All data points point toward Alonso being the most likely candidate to break through the stubborn Southern California marine layer come Monday night.

2022 Home Run Derby Field By the Numbers

Pete Alonso 

  • Longest HR This Year: 447 ft.  
  • Career HRs at Dodger Stadium: 7 (13.2% rate) 
  • Home Run Derby Appearances: 2, 131 total HRs with 514 ft. as longest

Ronald Acuña Jr.

  • Longest HR This Year: 464 ft.  
  • Career HRs at Dodger Stadium: 1 (9% rate) 
  • Home Run Derby Appearances: 1, 44 total HRs with 469 ft. as longest

Albert Pujols

  • Longest HR This Year: 426 ft.
  • Career HRs at Dodger Stadium: 17 (5.3% rate)
  • Home Run Derby Appearances: 4, 684 total HRs

Jose Ramirez

  • Longest HR This Year: 422 ft.
  • Career HRs at Dodger Stadium: None
  • Home Run Derby Appearances: First

Julio Rodriguez

  • Longest HR This Year: 450 ft.
  • Career HRs at Dodger Stadium: Never Played At Dodger Stadium
  • Home Run Derby Appearances: First

Kyle Schwarber

  • Longest HR This Year: 468 ft.
  • Career HRs at Dodger Stadium: 3 HRs (5.1% rate)
  • Home Run Derby Appearances: 1, 55 Total HRs with 453 ft. as longest

Corey Seager

  • Longest HR This Year: 435 ft.
  • Career HRs at Dodger Stadium: 59 HRs (4.6% rate)
  • Home Run Derby Appearances: 1

Juan Soto

  • Longest HR This Year: 451 ft.
  • Career HRs at Dodger Stadium: 2 (10% rate)
  • Home Run Derby Appearances: 1, 46 Total HRs with 520 ft. as longest


Home Run Derby Odds

⚾️ Pete Alonso +200
⚾️ Kyle Schwarber+300
⚾️ Ronald Acuña Jr.+550
⚾️ Juan Soto+550
⚾️ Corey Seager+1000
⚾️ Julio Rodriguez+1000
⚾️ Jose Ramirez+1200
⚾️ Albert Pujols+1800
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.

Who Could Challenge Alonso Come Monday Night?

It’s fair to wager either Soto or Acuña has a puncher’s chance at unseating Alonso.

It’s fair to assume Soto won’t be daunted by the bright lights of the derby, after belting 46 home runs at last year’s event in Denver. 

Acuña is no rookie either, with 44 career home runs in the derby, while Schwarber hit 55 home runs in his lone derby appearance in 2018. Former Dodgers shortstop Seager, in his lone derby appearance, hit 15 HRs in 2016 and did not get past the first round.

Seager obviously has homefield advantage from his seven-year run with Los Angeles, where he belted 59 home runs at Dodger Stadium.

A pair of first timers are on the docket this year, in former Dodgers shortstop Seager, Rodriguez and Ramirez.

Rodriguez is a 21-year-old phenom who has hit 15 home runs in 88 games this season for the Mariners, while Ramirez has 180 home runs to his name across 10 MLB seasons with Cleveland.

Then there’s the wily veteran crowd, headed by future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols, who enters his All-Star Game swan song with 685 career home runs, along with four previous appearances in the Home Run Derby.

Pujols competed in 2003, 2007, 2009 and 2015, never finishing better than second.

For now, oddsmakers at least, aren’t ready to anoint a new Home Run Derby king.

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Contributors

Christopher Boan
Reporter / Journalist

Christopher Boan is the lead writer at BetCalifornia.com, specializing in sports betting issues in the western United States. He's covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

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